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Outbreaks Predictions of Covid19 in Tabasco, Mexico, using Fast Fourier Transform
Manuel Sandoval Martínez, Janette Moreno Sandoval, Claudia Morales Barrón, Luz Elba Castillo Izquierdo
computer-application
Citation
Manuel Sandoval Martínez, Janette Moreno Sandoval, Claudia Morales Barrón, Luz Elba Castillo Izquierdo, “Outbreaks Predictions of Covid19 in Tabasco, Mexico, using Fast Fourier Transform”, International Journal of Engineering and Applied Computer Science, vol. 04, no. 04, pp. 36-40, May. 2022.
computer-application
Abstract
Results of analysis carried out on data of Covid19, in Tabasco State, are presented, from March 2020 to February 2022. The procedure named 7 day´s moving average was applied to smooth the original graph and, in this way, analyze the data more easily. Fast Fourier transform (FFT) was applied to find the frequency that allows us to detect the period (in weeks) of generation of greater Covid19 infections. FFT allows us to determine that for a period of 14n weeks (n=1,3,5,7) there will be a new outbreak. The analysis of data reveals, during the first wave, the week with the highest number of infections was July 7-12 (2751 cases), that is in week 14 ( n=1). FFT indicates that the second wave of infection would be in week 42 with n=3, the maximum was obtained at week 40 (2122 cases). The next prediction (variant Delta) was for week 70 (n=5), where there would be a high number of cases (thrid wave); real data indicates that it was reached in week 73 (7,023 cases). The four-wave (Omicron) is predicted for week 98, however, it was reached in week 94 (12,834 cases). It should be noted that due to the high transmissibility of Omicron, the number of infection grew fast during January 2022, so in this case, the difference between the prediction and the reality, present a difference of four week, however, for week 94 number of cases remains very high (1265 cases). FFT has turned out to be an adequate tool to make predictions of four waves that have occurred in Tabasco.
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MANUEL SANDOVAL MARTÍNEZ
M. Sandoval is a Professor in Instituto Tecnológico Superior de Comalcalco since 1997. He pursued a Bachelor of Physics, Master of Science in Applied Math, and PhD in Physics Education from Instituo Politecnico Nacional in the year 2011. His main research work focuses on Physics Education and Mathematics Modeling.
british journal
JANETTE MORENO SANDOVAL
M.I. J. Moreno is a Professor in Instituto Tecnológico Superior de Comalcalco since 2014. She has a degree in Computer Science from Universidad Autónoma de Morelia and a Master of Science from University TecMilenio in the year 2013. Her main research work focuses on Mobile App Development.
british journal
CLAUDIA MORALES BARRÓN
M.C.D C. Morales is a Professor in Instituto Tecnológico Superior de Comalcalo since 1997. She has degree in Computer Science from Universidad Cristobal Colon, and Master in Teacher Competences from Instituo Universitario Puebla in year 2014. Her main work focuses in Analysis of Database.
british journal
LUZ ELBA CASTILLO IZQUIERDO
Lic. L. Castillo is a Professor in Instituto Tecnológico Superior de Comalcalco since 1995. She has degree in Computer Science from Universidad Juarez Autónoma de Tabasco in the year 1992. Her main work focuses in Analysis of Database.